Africa's Great Green Wall Holds Great Potential for Land Degradation Neutrality, Study Finds

A new study published in Scientific Reports has evaluated land productivity dynamics (LPD) across the African Great Green Wall (GGW) from 2013 to 2022, offered a decade-long perspective on one of the world's most ambitious initiatives to combat desertification in the Sahel. It aims to assess progress toward the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15.3 for Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) and identify the key factors driving land productivity change to guide more effective restoration strategies.

Using a high-resolution 30-meter LPD dataset, the study finds that land degradation (4.93% of the GGW area) continues to exceed restoration (3.44%). Land cover change (LCC) is the main driver of productivity gains (30.97%), while climate change (CLI) is the primary cause of declines (43.51%). Human activities like forest expansion and cropland reclamation have significantly boosted productivity, whereas forest loss and cropland abandonment have accelerated degradation.

Led by Professor LI Xiaosong from the Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences (AIRCAS), the research team employs the HiLPD-GEE tool to generate high-resolution LPD data that surpass the resolution of traditional datasets. By applying the Lindeman–Merenda–Gold (LMG) method, the team quantified the relative importance of environmental and human factors such as precipitation, temperature, CO2 levels, nitrogen deposition, and forest and cropland changes—providing a new insights into how these elements interact to shape productivity across the GGW region.

"Our findings show that human intervention still holds tremendous potential to reverse land degradation," said Professor Li. "With targeted restoration and climate-adaptive land management, the Great Green Wall can continue to transform the Sahel into a landscape of resilience and opportunity."

The study highlights that human-led actions, such as afforestation and land reclamation remain primary drivers of land restoration, while climate change is the predominant cause of degradation. Although degradation still outpaces restoration, the study underscores that the GGW initiative is making tangible progress in restoration degraded land. The study calls for integrated climate adaptation and sustainable land-use policies to advance SDG 15.3 and strengthen ecosystem resilience across the Sahel.